His own handlers are so confident about his prospects that they are seriously planning for the long haul–which means, in their eyes, foregoing federal “matching” funds so they can be free to raise and spend as much as they can next spring and summer once (they hope) Dean locks up the nomination in March. No final decision has been made–and there is the little matter that Dean promised long ago to stay within the system. But the sense I get from talking to his inner circle is that he will, indeed, skip the match.
Here’s the arithmetic behind it: As of last week, his Internet-based campaign had amassed a donor list of 100,000 individuals. The average donation, campaign sources say, is $77. But the contribution limit for individuals is now $2,000–which means, in theory, that Dean already has a potential pool of $200 million–a staggering figure compared with the $40 million or so he might be eligible for in matching funds.
Eschewing the federal match has other strategic benefits. Dean would be free to spend as much money as he wants in any state–including the early ones such as Iowa and New Hampshire, where he now has a lead, and where he will soon come under attack from his rivals.
Should he win the nomination, he would be free to raise and spend cash in what has become the defining middle third of the presidential campaign–the March-through-August season before the general election in the fall.
In the meantime, the issues are breaking his way. Party leaders–such as they are–once dismissed Dean’s anti-war based message as too narrow and liberal to reach the Democratic mainstream, let alone the swing voters in swing states the Dems need to win the White House back.
That argument looks fatuous now, with public patience with the war in Iraq eroding, and with the combat deaths and financial costs mounting steadily. In the latest polls, by Newsweek and others, his views–if not his aggressive, anti-Bush style–are as mainstream as can be.
Dean’s lack of military service is seen, by many, as a fatal flaw. Not if the anti-war tide rises further. And we are only seeing the beginning of what is soon going to be a rip-roaring guns-and-butter debate, one that could put President Bush in real political peril.
The war is costing $1 billion a week–and soon may cost more. Other countries are paying little. Voters in the Newsweek poll expressed irritation at these spending levels, and they are beginning to make the connection between the overall health of the American economy and the amount of money we are spending on a war they still support–but don’t want to pay for.
Rivals are going to begin focusing their fire on Dean. Another angle of attack is that his social policies are too leftish for the country–he, after all, signed that civil unions law in Vermont. But I don’t see that costing him much, if anything, in the Democratic primaries themselves, where activists turn out and where the electorate is left of center.
The Bush White House would, of course, try to paint Dean as a flower child of Vermont, a way-out-of-the-mainstream social liberal. But the Republicans don’t want to risk making such matters the centerpiece of their campaign. To do so would give too much prominence to their own Bible Belt base. Bush wants that support but, come next fall, isn’t going to want to feature it in his own hunt for swing voters (who tend to be rather laid back on social matters.)
The Bushies–and Democratic rivals before them–also are going to try to paint Dean as a “pacifist” (a top White House aide’s word) who would rather negotiate and talk to the French than take the fight to the terrorists around the globe. But if his style of campaigning is any indication, Dean is no pushover–and would argue that he wouldn’t be as commander in chief, either.
UNSTOPPABLE?
Who can stop Dean? You need to know, first, that there is no “party leadership.” There are no guys in the back of the room. There is no room. Members of Congress, who control nomination “superdelegate” votes, could unite behind someone–but haven’t and probably won’t.
Joe Lieberman says nominating Dean would be a disaster for the Democratic Party. He may be right, but the way things look at this moment, the Democrats are going to get a chance to see if Lieberman is right.
In the end, Dean’s biggest obstacle may be–Howard Dean. Sooner or later, he is going to come under enormous pressure, and his response will decide his fate. He can be imperious, and he has a temper, and he tends to be a know-it-all. He is no longer an insurgent, but a frontrunner–and that is still the most dangerous place to be before the voting begins.
