Campaign 2004 already has been an amazing show, and it hasn’t even started. With shrewd management, high-tech savvy and an angry anti-Bush message, Dean–the one-time internist and former governor of Vermont–has surged to the lead in the race for the Democratic nomination. An obscurity a few months ago, he is the frontrunner now, and everyone knows it.

As a result, the dynamic in New Mexico (with its heavy Hispanic vote and pivotal early primary) will be Dean and anti-Dean. The storyline of the night–foreshadowing, perhaps, the fall season in its entirety–will focus on the question of how he responds to the inevitable attacks I expect to begin Thursday night. The sound bite that makes the TV news, and the lead that makes the New York Times, will be the one that features the sharpest, nastiest exchange between the good doctor and … whoever.

The NFL season debuts at the same time. Are you ready for some football? The Bush White House and its Republican allies are salivating at the chance to run against Dean, who opposes the war in Iraq, favors civil unions and abortion rights, and hails from a tiny New England state where wearing Birkenstocks is not a social crime. At a July 4 parade in his Washington neighborhood, Bush svengali Karl Rove declared to anyone within earshot that he wanted Dean to be the Democratic nominee. (I think he meant it.) Following Rove’s lead, GOP House Leader Tom DeLay has picked a rhetoric fight with Dean, with the clear intent of elevating Dean’s stature among his fellow Democrats. DeLay called him a “cruel, loudmouth extremist”–no higher form of praise from DeLay, and in the minds of grassroots activists in both parties.

So how will it all go down on Thursday? I’ve been talking to strategists in the various camps and the organizers of the debate (hosted by New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and the Hispanic Caucus) and here is what I see: The format: It’s not a debate, per se, but a 90-minute “conversation” in three segments that will be hosted by Rau Saurez of NPR and Maria Elena Salinas of Univision. Some of the questions will be in Spanish, followed by translation. The first third of the debate is supposed to be on a “topic of the day” and the rest will flow from that. There are no strict time limits, but someone will be keeping track of precisely how many minutes and seconds each candidate uses, and will try to keep things even. Any candidate who is mentioned by name will get a chance to respond, which means, I guess, that Dean will be doing a lot of talking.

The strategy of the others:

Sen. John Kerry: The once and former “frontrunner” (so called, it must be said, only because some pundits decided that his resume was to their liking) will attack. He has no choice. He is 20 points behind Dean in New Hampshire, and a distant third in Iowa. Kerry has to stop Dean’s “Mo.” The attack lines will be: Unlike Kerry, Dean has no hands-on experience in foreign policy or military affairs (true); Dean wants to repeal all of Bush’s tax cuts, including those for the middle class (sort of true); and Dean is not the political purist he claims to be (also sort of true). “Kerry is going to throw some punches,” predicted the top strategist for another candidate in the race.

Sen. Joe Lieberman: He still leads in some (meaningless) national polls, and will also strike Dean, as he has been doing for weeks. Lieberman has been blunt about saying that Dean’s nomination would lead the Democrats into an electoral debacle like the one they suffered in 1972, when George McGovern was trounced by Richard Nixon. “We’re going to say what we’ve been saying for a long time now,” said one Lieberman strategist. “We don’t have to adjust our strategy.”

Rep. Dennis Kucinich: He will attack Dean from the left. He’ll actually do Dean a favor, since the doctor is trying to prove to skeptical Democrats that he is mainstream enough to take on Bush in the fall.

Rep. Dick Gephardt and Sen. John Edwards: The betting is that they won’t go after Dean, on the theory that they still prefer to have him cripple Kerry, thus giving them a chance to become the last-minute Un-Dean if and when Kerry falters. “Why would we go after Dean?” one adviser to Edwards asked rhetorically. “We’d rather face him than Kerry after Iowa and New Hampshire.”

And what should the doctor do? My prescription: Keep your cool, speak as much Spanish as you can manage with any credibility, stay above the fray and on the attack against President Bush, not the other Democratic contenders with you on the stage. If they go after you, be nice and call them desperate, as politely as you can manage. Don’t let them bait you. Explain to the audience (not your rivals) clearly and succinctly what your proposals are. And did I mention, keep your cool?

Dean has a short fuse, and doesn’t like to be challenged face to face. I asked one of Dean’s top advisers what the biggest obstacle was facing his man as he tried to keep his lead-stock status. “The biggest threat to Howard Dean is Howard Dean,” he said.

Now that’s a debate I want to see.