Whatever else George W. Bush does, or doesn’t do, he has earned a place in history as the first American president to place Hispanic voters at the center of politics, and the first to view the land between Canada and Guatemala as one.
It makes sense, if you think about it: Texas, long ago and far away, was part of Mexico. Now a Texan is trying to reassemble the Old Country, and then some.
Since World War II, presidents (and would-be presidents) have been expected to have a global perspective and to show appreciation for ethnic diversity. One way to do that was to visit the Old Countries of immigrant America. The well-worn itineraries got a name: the “Three I” trips to Ireland, Italy and Israel. Politicians would be photographed kissing the Blarney Stone, taking part in an audience with the pope, bowing at the Wailing Wall.
This week, President Bush isn’t visiting the Blarney Stone. It’s visiting him.
As even the most casual observer of politics knows, Hispanics have become the largest minority group in America, and Mexicans are the largest bloc within the bloc. There’s no better, or less controversial, way to show respect for those voters than to welcome Fox to the White House. He’s not quite a hero in his country, but close to it: the first genuine reformer ever elected, with a 65 percent approval rating and a loose-limbed, off-handed manner that is recognizable, and camera friendly, on both sides of the Rio Grande.
There are, to be sure, risks associated with Bush’s hearty embrace of Fox. All politics is personal for Bush, which isn’t always a good thing: If Fox turns out to be as corrupt as his predecessors, Bush will look naive. (Same, on the other side of the world, for the bear hug he’s given Vladimir Putin.) Bush can’t let his legitimate interest in Latin America become an excuse to avoid gaining a deep knowledge of the rest of the world. The Monroe Doctrine doesn’t mean you’re supposed to ignore everyplace else. It’s hard not to sympathize with Bush’s lack of patience with the Europeans, but the lesson of the last century is that world wars start there.
Still, the big Mexican embrace seems, for now at least, like a pure winner. Democrats deride Bush as an isolationist dunce. So how come they didn’t think of buddying up to Mexico?
Actually, they did, but didn’t make a giant photo-op of it because doing so too was controversial among the Big Labor (Democratic) rank and file. Bill Clinton sold the North American Free Trade Agreement to the country over the objections of union leaders in his own party. Robert Rubin, his Treasury secretary, engineered the “Mexican Bailout” in a three-card Monte game with Wall Street. The move was heatedly denounced at the time, but Mexico paid up, and the deal was a success.
Clinton was and remains a master politician, but I don’t think he ever grasped the Latino vote-getting power that NAFTA and the bailout opened up. (Then again, running against the hapless Bob Dole in 1996, Clinton didn’t need do.)
Hailing from the segregated Deep South of the ’50s and ’60s, Clinton saw (and still sees) politics in black and white. He memorized the speeches of Martin Luther King Jr., played saxophone in the band, and mended but didn’t end affirmative action. He does speak a foreign language, but it’s German.
All politics is local, and so is all political education. Bush learned sound-bite Spanish and Latino outreach from the start, with an added (and accidental) assist from his years as a baseball executive. In the National Pastime, signing Latin players is the name of the game, even if he did trade Sammy Sosa.
Inside the White House, chief strategist Karl Rove has set a goal of raising Bush’s haul among Hispanic voters from 35 percent last year to 38 or 39 percent in 2004. The most important of those he hopes to woo don’t reside in megastates, but in places such as North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and Oregon.
In the meantime, Latino voters-especially Mexican-Americans-are affecting the calculus in midterm elections. Analysts in Florida tend to dismiss Janet Reno’s chances in the governor’s race, pointing out her role in sending Elian Gonzales back to Cuba. But the vehemently anti-Castro Cuban community in Florida no longer dominates Latino politics in the state. There are now more immigrants from Mexico and Central and South America than Cuba.
In Texas, the decision of Sen. Phil Gramm to retire from the U.S. Senate next year opens the possibility of an all-Hispanic general election there, perhaps pitting Democrat Dan Morales against Bush pal Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio. The Bush White House will stay publicly neutral in the GOP primary, but there’s little doubt Rove & Co. prefer Bonilla, who was an early Bush ally-and who would be the first Hispanic Republican in the Senate.
All that’s far off. The big topic of the moment is the state dinner. On the Spanish-language networks, Univison and Telemundo (which together reach 98 percent of Latino residents), Fox’s visit to Washington (with a detour to Toledo, Ohio) is getting Condit-size coverage. Viewers will learn everything about who sat where and who ate what in the State Dining Room.
But viewers will also be reminded that, long before there was an Ohio, Toledo was a city in Spain.
