But no one in Pakistan was surprised by the silent prime minister with the curious smile. By now Jamali’s passivity is just as much a fixture in Islamabad as the vitriol of Musharraf’s conservative Muslim opponents. Jamali secured his current post (by a mere one vote) precisely because his quiet, nonconfrontational demeanor made him the least offensive candidate to the deeply divided groups vying for power–the pro-military Pakistan Muslim League, the hard-line Muslim United Action Council and the pro-democracy Pakistan People’s Party. But now it looks like that very same submissiveness and unwillingness to offend could topple the portly politician. In recent weeks a spate of fresh sectarian violence has so unnerved Musharraf and his circle of military backers that they appear ready to clean house. And Jamali looks set to become the first scapegoat. “His days are numbered,” says a senior official.
In fact, it’s an open secret in the capital that Musharraf is hunting for a new prime minister. A tribal chief from the frontier province of Baluchistan, Jamali has held cabinet posts in the past, but he lacks a strong political base. Presidential aides complain that Jamali is not competent enough to run even routine day-to-day affairs, let alone deal with the complexities of Pakistani coalition politics. “Jamali is responsible for the paralysis of the government,” says a federal minister. “There is no leadership.”
Of course, nobody ever thought the prime minister’s job would be easy. After a coalition of six right-wing religious parties called Muttahida Majlis Amal (MMA) won 60 of 300 seats in last October’s elections, it was clear there would be big political battles ahead. But the situation is even worse than many anticipated. For months, Pakistan’s powerful opposition has blocked the entire legislative agenda by refusing to recognize Musharraf as president until he takes off his uniform and overturns an amendment to the Constitution passed before the elections that granted him new, sweeping powers.
And the costs of inaction are mounting. In the past month, Islamic extremists have unleashed a fresh wave of violence in an apparent bid to destabilize the country. The extremists have directed most of the attacks on minority Shiite Muslims and Christians, with the worst attack coming two weeks ago, when suspected Islamic militants killed 53 worshipers at a Shiite mosque in the southwestern city of Quetta.
Musharraf’s ability to crack down on the extremists has been limited by the standoff in Parliament and by his lack of allies on the ground in the border provinces. But Musharraf may be nearing his endgame. The president’s aides say that beyond sacking Jamali, they may try to shrink the prime minister’s post by ceding it only nominal powers and, in a worst-case scenario, dissolve the National Assembly completely. One senior official told NEWSWEEK that a new prime minister, preferably close to the president, is currently considered the “most desirable way to deal with the present paralysis.” Shaukat Aziz, the high-profile Finance minister and former Citibank executive, is said to be the most likely man for the job.
But any attack on the current parliamentary system would likely fuel the resentment of voters and allow Muslim radicals to win fresh recruits by accusing Musharraf of political tampering. “If the deadlock persists, and Musharraf decides to pack up the democratic facade, the hard-liners feel the next election could return them with greater strength,” says Aqil Shah, a political analyst. For Musharraf and his allies, that makes their next move no laughing matter.
