That was 1948–a political moment very nearly as unsettled as our own. That year, the right and left wings of the Democratic Party took a walk. The Dixiecrats’ Strom Thurmond and the Progressives’ Henry Wallace together polled 2.3 million votes, costing Truman a majority in his narrow win over Republican Tom Dewey–shades of Bill Clinton’s 43 percent victory in ‘92.
History often teaches us more about politics than headlines and polls. Now as then, Americans are anxious and dissatisfied. After the divisive ‘48 election, voters chose a fresh route–Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, a war hero who seemed somehow above politics as usual. And there are tantalizing signals the electorate may do the same in 1996, this time with Colin Powell.
Consider the similarities. From ‘48 to ‘52. voters feared extremists in both parties. The Democrats’ left wing seemed headed toward socialism on the then British model; the GOP’s right wing was witch-hunting at home and isolationist abroad. Meanwhile, Sen. Joseph McCarthy was calling Truman a traitor. And charges of influence peddling be-deviled the White House–“that mess in Washington,” it was called.
People wanted a hero–someone who could restore the sense of national purpose forged in World War II. And so citizens’ groups started a Draft Eisenhower campaign. The GOP regulars didn’t want Ike; they liked Sen. Robert Taft of Ohio, But Eisenhower proved too popular with the grass roots. He squeaked to the nomination, and triumphed in November.
In this parallel age of gridlock. Gingrich and Whitewater, is Powell another Eisenhower? The two are, of course, very different kinds of men. There’s race and background–Ike’s classmates in Abilene, Kans., were nearly all WASPs: Powell’s, in the South Bronx, were Jews, Puerto Ricans, Italians, Irish, Poles and Jamaicans. And Desert Storm was hardly Operation Overlord. But Powell’s life experience–he would be the first president born in the inner city–may help him handle today’s domestic problems, many of which are connected to the nation’s cultural diversity and urban crisis. In foreign affairs, the lessons Ike learned in World War II prepared him to fight the Red Army. What Powell learned in the gulf is appropriate to post-cold-war challenges–murkier problems like Haiti, Bosnia, the Middle East. Ike hated war: so does Powell. (Not all generals do.) “Don’t go to war in response to emotions of anger and resentment,” Eisenhower said in 1954. This year, responding to the charge he was a “reluctant warrior” in the gulf, Powell declared: “Guilty. War is a deadly game.” Once at war, however. Eisenhower went all out, just as Powell did in 1991.
Powell is an outsider to elective politics–the public loves the idea of an independent Powell bid–with an insider’s feel for how Washington works. He has mastered the capital’s culture better than any leading American general since Eisenhower (who also spent much of his career in Washington). In the end, Ike was a partisan, and Powell may be, too. Because Powell’s appeal is so broad, both parties long to claim him. In his speeches, the general says: “We have to start thinking of America as a family. We have to stop screeching at each other, stop hurting each other, and instead start caring for, sacrificing for, and sharing with each other.” Coming from a respected old soldier, this is perfect-pitch rhetoric for the troubled ’90s. That’s why some Democrats like Mississippi Rep, Gene Taylor–a Southerner who survived in 1994 but who fears 1996–are organizing their own Draft Powell movement.
Powell’s allies, however, tend to be Republicans–George Bush, Caspar Weinberger–and the general preaches a kind of centrist GOP philosophy. “I have very strong Republican leanings on economic and foreign-policy matters,” he has said, “but I was a New Deal kid. I had pictures of Franklin Roosevelt on my wall.” (So did Ronald Reagan.) He wants to cut taxes, balance the budget, and has said work is the best solution for most social woes. On affirmative action, he opposes quotas, but in his speeches he recalls returning home from Vietnam and traveling in a segregated South: “I can remember very well being denied access to a lunch counter. This isn’t ancient . . . there are still racial problems in our country.” He deplored the Willie Horton spot in Bush’s 1988 campaign. Precisely because of this, he could do for the GOP in ‘96 what Eisenhower did for it In ‘52–save the party from Its own worst instincts.
The pundits think that once Powell gets specific, his ratings will fall. That’s what they said about Ike. But most people don’t choose a president based on his position on the 55-mph speed limit, or even abortion. They want someone who inspires them. And more and more. Colin Powell seems to be that man.
